This is how the 15th Dalai Lama will be chosen

Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th Dalai Lama, has made a defining proclamation ahead of his 90th birthday on July 6, 2025: the institution carrying his name will continue after his death. He confirmed that responsibility for locating his reincarnation will rest solely with the Gaden Phodrang Trust, the non-profit he established, rejecting any claim from Beijing to intervene.

Tradition holds that when a Dalai Lama dies, a search team guided by senior monks, oracles such as those at Lhamo Latso, and signs like smoke direction and dreams identifies possible reincarnation candidates. These potential successors are tested against personal artifacts and asked to pick items belonging to the previous Dalai Lama.

The chosen child typically undergoes extensive religious training until formal enthronement, or “sitting‑in‑the‑bed,” often after approval by Qing‑era rituals such as the Golden Urn.

However, Tenzin Gyatso is challenging parts of that model. He stated that his next incarnation “will be born in the free world,” potentially outside China, and may even be an adult or woman, depending on spiritual suitability.

Here's a simple, step-by-step process of how the next Dalai Lama will be chosen according to Tenzin Gyatso's plan:

1. Responsibility with Gaden Phodrang Trust: The Gaden Phodrang Trust, a non-profit established by the 14th Dalai Lama, will be solely responsible for locating his reincarnation.
2. Birth in the Free World: The next incarnation will be born in the "free world," potentially outside of China.
3. Potential Non-Traditional Candidate: The successor could be an adult or even a woman, depending on their spiritual suitability, rather than exclusively a child.
4. No Beijing Intervention: Beijing's claim to intervene in the selection process is rejected. Any successor nominated by Beijing will be opposed.
5. Written Instructions and Engagement: The Dalai Lama's plan includes written instructions and engagement with Tibetan Buddhist leaders and the Gaden Phodrang Trust.
6. Possible Selection Before Passing: A framework may involve selecting a mature spiritual successor before the 14th Dalai Lama's passing.
7. Spiritual Suitability Over Political Alignment: Legitimacy will hinge on the support of the faith community and spiritual tradition, not political alignment or Chinese state mechanisms.

According to the Reuters report, speaking in a video message from a library in Dharamshala (India) Dalai Lama said:

"I am affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue... they should accordingly carry out the procedures of search and recognition in accordance with past tradition... no one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter."

His memoir, Voice for the Voiceless, asserts firm opposition to any successor nominated by Beijing.

This stance invites a geopolitical showdown. China insists, based on a 2007 regulation and an 18th‑century Qing precedent, that a successor must be born within Tibet and confirmed via the Golden Urn, under state oversight.

Beijing views Tibetan succession as a matter of sovereignty, framing any external approval as interference.

The end result could be dual claimants, one recognized by the exiled Tibetan community, another by the Chinese state.

The 1995 Panchen Lama case offers a cautionary template: after recognizing Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, Beijing detained him and elevated its own candidate, spawning a rival lineage.

The Dalai Lama’s plan includes written instructions and engagement with Tibetan Buddhist leaders and the Gaden Phodrang Trust, suggesting a framework that may involve selecting a mature spiritual successor before his passing.

This could reduce the risk of a leadership vacuum and undercut Beijing’s attempts to impose control.

India, hosting over 100,000 Tibetan exiles in Dharamshala, becomes a key observer. The United States has backed Tibetan religious autonomy through laws like the Tibetan Policy and Support Act, opposing Chinese control over his successor.

The months ahead promise intense scrutiny. Gyatso’s video message emphasized that “no one else has any such authority to interfere” in selecting the next Dalai Lama.

If China conducts its own selection via state mechanisms, legitimacy will hinge on faith community support more than political alignment.

The Dalai Lama’s recalibrated succession plan, placing authority with a trusted religious trust, stipulating a successor outside Chinese influence, acknowledging the potential for a non‑traditional candidate, marks a bold recalibration.

It redefines the criteria of legitimacy in the struggle: spiritual tradition over political jurisdiction.