India’s Fertility Rate Drops Below Replacement Level for the First Time
India’s total fertility rate has dropped to 1.9 in 2024, falling below the replacement threshold of 2.1 for the first time in the country’s recorded demographic history, according to the Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2024 released by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner under the Union Ministry of Home Affairs.
The report puts the national TFR at 1.9, with rural India at 2.1 and urban India at 1.5. The replacement level refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years to keep a population stable across generations.
“The TFR for India in 2024 was 1.9, with a higher TFR in rural areas (2.1) than in urban areas (1.5),” the report noted.
The decline shows a steep fall from 5.2 during 1971-1981 to 4.5, and from 3.6 in 1991 to 1.9 in 2024. Rural fertility fell from 5.4 in 1971 to 2.1 in 2024, while urban fertility declined from 4.1 to 1.5 over the same period.
The national average masks sharp state-level contrasts. Bihar recorded the highest fertility rate at 2.9, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6, Madhya Pradesh at 2.4 and Rajasthan at 2.3, the only major states still above replacement.
Delhi reported the lowest TFR at 1.2. Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal each recorded 1.3, while Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra and Punjab stood at 1.4. Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana each reported 1.5.
The rural-urban gap held across almost all major states and Union Territories, except Kerala, where urban fertility was marginally higher, and Tamil Nadu, where rates remained identical in both areas.
Delhi recorded the sharpest decline in fertility over the last decade, with a 29.4 per cent reduction between 2012-14 and 2022-24. Gujarat followed with a 25 per cent decline, while Tamil Nadu recorded a 23.5 per cent drop. Bihar saw the slowest decline at 9.4 per cent.
The General Fertility Rate, which measures births per 1,000 women aged 15-49, fell nationally by 12 per cent, from 78.8 during 2012-14 to 64.6 in 2022-24.
Bihar remained the highest at 96 births per 1,000 women, and was the only major state where urban fertility increased slightly over the decade, rising from 75.9 to 77.5.
Ageing south, younger north!
The findings point to a widening demographic divide. Kerala now has 15.1 per cent of its population aged 60 years and above, followed by Tamil Nadu at 14.2 per cent. Bihar remains one of India’s youngest states, with nearly one-third of its population below the age of 14.
Child survival rates remain uneven. Under-five mortality stood at 41 deaths per 1,000 live births in both Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, compared with 9 in Kerala. Rural India recorded a higher under-five mortality rate of 32, against 19 in urban areas.
Institutional deliveries have expanded. In 2024, 95.4 per cent of deliveries took place in healthcare institutions. Urban areas recorded 97.9 per cent institutional deliveries, compared with 94.6 per cent in rural India.
Access to medical care at death remains uneven. Around 45.5 per cent of deaths occurred without qualified medical attention in 2024, rising to 48.9 per cent in rural areas.
Marriage patterns also shifted. Nationally, 73.5 per cent of women married at age 21 or above in 2024, while 24.5 per cent married between 18 and 20 years. Urban India showed later marriage, with 82.2 per cent of women marrying after 21, compared with 70.2 per cent in rural areas.
India’s sex ratio at birth stood at 918 girls per 1,000 boys between 2022 and 2024. Uttarakhand recorded the lowest at 872, while Chhattisgarh and Kerala reported the highest at 978 and 974 respectively.
What the earlier SRS data showed?
The SRS Statistical Report for 2023 had already placed the national TFR at 1.9, down from 2.0 in 2022, with rural TFR reaching the replacement rate of 2.1 for the first time. Gross Reproduction Rate for 2023 was estimated at 0.9 nationally, 1.0 in rural areas and 0.7 in urban areas.
Infant mortality declined to 25 per 1,000 live births in 2023, with Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh at 37 each, and Kerala at five.
Unverified reports have speculated that India’s population, estimated by the UN at 1.46 billion in 2025, could peak near 1.7 billion before declining, with some analysts projecting a TFR below 1.6 by 2031.
State-level pronatalist signals, such as Andhra Pradesh’s incentives for larger families, have been interpreted by observers as early policy anxiety over a shrinking workforce.
The SRS findings reinforce concerns about uneven transitions: some states face rapid ageing and shrinking fertility, while others continue with relatively high birth rates and weaker health outcomes.
The report does not prescribe policy, but the data it contains will shape debates on healthcare planning, pension systems, labour supply and inter-state fiscal transfers in the years ahead.
