Goldman Raises 2026 Gold Forecast to $4,900
Goldman Sachs has revised its December 2026 gold target upward from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing continued strength in Western gold-ETF inflows and steady central bank demand.
This matters because it signals rising institutional confidence in gold’s role as a hedge amid macro stress. Gold has already crossed the $4,000 mark this year, gaining more than 50 percent.
Goldman expects central banks (especially in emerging markets) to maintain reserve diversification into gold, with purchases averaging 80 metric tons in 2025 and 70 in 2026.
At the same time, Goldman models a 100 bps cut in U.S. rates by mid-2026, which would reduce real yields and make gold more attractive.
Some caution is warranted. ETF flows have been strong, but speculative positions have not clearly indicated overextension.
Goldman itself remarks that risks to its upgraded forecast are “skewed to the upside,” partly because private sector diversification into gold could push ETF holdings beyond what its models assume.
What investors should watch now after this latest Goldman Sachs gold forecast:
- Actions of central banks, particularly in Asia and Latin America
- U.S. Federal Reserve signals on rate cuts
- Strength or weakness in dollar and real yields
- ETF inflows as a gauge of investor sentiment
If Goldman’s view plays out, gold miners and gold-related funds could see solid upside from here. But if inflation surprises to the upside or rate cuts stall, volatility may return.
