Morgan Stanley Forecasts 200,000 European Banking Jobs at Risk from AI by 2030

Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that European banks could eliminate more than 200,000 jobs by 2030 as they adopt artificial intelligence (AI) and close physical branches.

The forecast covers 35 lenders that together employ about 2.12 million people, with a potential 10% reduction amounting to roughly 212,000 positions.

Cuts would target central services divisions, which handle back-office and middle-office functions along with risk management and compliance roles.

“Many banks have quoted efficiency gains coming from AI and further digitalisation to the tune of 30 per cent,” Morgan Stanley shared in its analysis.

Consumer-focused lenders and banks in France and Germany face the greatest pressure, where cost-to-income ratios stay elevated.

ABN Amro plans to reduce about a fifth of its full-time staff by 2028, while Société Générale operates under chief executive Slawomir Krupa, who stated “nothing is sacred” in reducing the cost base.

Banks seek these changes to address investor demands for lower costs and higher returns on equity, which trail those of U.S. competitors.