2028 Presidential Candidates: AOC and Rubio Rise as Vance Stays Strong

The contest to succeed Donald Trump in the White House is accelerating far earlier than typical election cycles, with new polling, betting markets, and candidate maneuvers reshaping both major parties' fields nearly three years before voters cast ballots.

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A poll released May 12 by AtlasIntel places Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) atop the Democratic primary field for the first time, drawing 26 percent support among Democratic voters.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Gov. Gavin Newsom trail in second and third place.

On the Republican side, the same survey finds Secretary of State Marco Rubio leading with 45.4 percent of primary voters, followed by Vice President JD Vance and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in distant second and third positions.

The results, which surveyed voters on potential candidates for the next White House race, mark a notable shift in a Democratic field that had been dominated in earlier polls by figures like former Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Newsom.

A separate CNN poll released in late December 2025 had shown Newsom and Vance leading their respective parties' lists.

Ocasio-Cortez has not declared a candidacy, but her public statements have done little to dampen speculation. During a May 9 event in Chicago with Democratic strategist David Axelrod, she offered a characteristically oblique response when pressed on her intentions.

"They assume that my ambition is a title or a seat," she said. "And my ambition is way bigger than that. My ambition is to change this country."

She added:

"Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer health care is forever, a living wage is forever, workers' rights are forever, women's rights, all of that."

Her office did not respond to a request for comment on the matter.

The four-term House member from New York City has also used the prospect of a Senate run against Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) as leverage, publicly criticizing him over government funding negotiations.

A December 2025 poll by Argument/Verasight showing her edging Vance 51 percent to 49 percent in a hypothetical general election matchup prompted a one-word reaction on X: "Bloop!".

On the Republican side, the dynamic between Vance and Rubio has become one of the most closely watched subplots of the pre-primary period.

Rubio, speaking to author Chris Whipple for a Vanity Fair profile published in December 2025, stated plainly that he would not challenge Vance for the nomination.

"If J.D. Vance runs for president, he's going to be our nominee, and I'll be one of the first people to support him," Rubio said.

Despite Rubio's deferential posture, a growing faction inside the White House views the secretary of state as a viable alternative, according to an April 2026 Politico report citing multiple administration officials.

Rubio's role in the ouster of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro and his unwavering loyalty to Trump have elevated his standing among the president's inner circle.

Trump adviser Alex Bruesewitz praised Rubio's trajectory, saying he "chose the route of embracing MAGA and becoming one of MAGA's staunchest allies and advocates" rather than fading into irrelevance after his own failed 2016 presidential bid.

A senior White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, described Rubio as "loyal, wicked smart, articulate and very seasoned," adding that "he is a winner".

A CPAC straw poll in March 2026 showed Rubio surging to 35 percent from just 3 percent the previous year, though Vance still held a commanding 53 percent.

Trump has fueled uncertainty by declining to anoint a successor. During a May 11 White House event, he described Vance and Rubio as a "perfect ticket" but stopped short of endorsing either.

"I do believe that's a dream team, but these are minor details. That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstances," Trump said. "I think it sounds like presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate".

White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, in the same Vanity Fair interview, insisted Trump has no intention of violating the 22nd Amendment's two-term limit, saying "he sure is having fun with it".

Vance, for his part, has been careful to frame any decision as contingent on the 2026 midterms.

"We're going to win the midterms. We're going to do everything that we can to win the midterms," he told Fox News' Sean Hannity. "And then after that, I'm going to sit down with the president of the United States and talk to him about it".

The vice president's future ambitions became a central issue during December 2025 Supreme Court oral arguments in a campaign finance case he originally brought as a Senate candidate, with his attorney arguing that "there's no evidence that the vice president has abandoned his intention to run for federal office in 2028".

Betting markets tracked by oddschecker as of September 2025 placed Vance as the overall favorite at +225, with Newsom at +350 and Ocasio-Cortez at +1000.

Rubio sat at +1200, tied with Buttigieg. A U.S.-regulated prediction market briefly elevated Rubio to joint favorite status in early May 2026, reflecting the fluidity of the field.

Credit: AllBlogThings – AOC, Marco Rubio, and JDVance.

Beyond the top-tier names, a broad constellation of potential candidates is positioning for both primaries.

On the Democratic side, figures including Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore have drawn mention in early surveys and donor conversations.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who led multiple early polls, has seen her standing diminish in recent months.

On the Republican side, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr., and other Trump-aligned figures continue to draw speculation.

No candidate from either party has formally declared a 2028 presidential campaign.

The first primary debates remain roughly two years away, and the political environment could shift dramatically depending on the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections.